Lineup Lowdown: National League

Lineup Lowdown: National League

This article is part of our Lineup Lowdown series.

The goal with Lineup Lowdown is simple: we're looking for trends which could help identify players who might be undervalued or overvalued. Who is playing more/less? Who is moving up/down? We'll be doing a deep dive into one league each week as we navigate the lineup landscape.

Atlanta Braves

– The Braves lost Ozzie Albies to a fractured toe last week. In seven games since then, Michael Harris has been elevated to the No. 2 spot in the lineup that Albies vacated for all four contests against right-handers, while Orlando Arcia has been there in the three games versus lefties. As far as second base goes, Luis Guillorme has handled the spot in those four tilts versus righties, while David Fletcher occupied the keystone against the southpaws.

– Arcia has also been up in the six spot in the lineup against right-handers since Albies went down. This is after he hadn't escaped the lower third of the batting order in the first 15 contests of the season. The 29-year-old has actually been much better versus righties (.929 OPS) than lefties (.697 OPS) this season, but last year he had drastic splits in the other direction, boasting a ridiculous 1.006 OPS against southpaws versus a .674 OPS against right-handed pitching.

Miami Marlins

Bryan De La Cruz bounced around to various spots in the Marlins' lineup for the first three weeks of the season, but he's been parked in the two hole for each of the last seven games. With a

The goal with Lineup Lowdown is simple: we're looking for trends which could help identify players who might be undervalued or overvalued. Who is playing more/less? Who is moving up/down? We'll be doing a deep dive into one league each week as we navigate the lineup landscape.

Atlanta Braves

– The Braves lost Ozzie Albies to a fractured toe last week. In seven games since then, Michael Harris has been elevated to the No. 2 spot in the lineup that Albies vacated for all four contests against right-handers, while Orlando Arcia has been there in the three games versus lefties. As far as second base goes, Luis Guillorme has handled the spot in those four tilts versus righties, while David Fletcher occupied the keystone against the southpaws.

– Arcia has also been up in the six spot in the lineup against right-handers since Albies went down. This is after he hadn't escaped the lower third of the batting order in the first 15 contests of the season. The 29-year-old has actually been much better versus righties (.929 OPS) than lefties (.697 OPS) this season, but last year he had drastic splits in the other direction, boasting a ridiculous 1.006 OPS against southpaws versus a .674 OPS against right-handed pitching.

Miami Marlins

Bryan De La Cruz bounced around to various spots in the Marlins' lineup for the first three weeks of the season, but he's been parked in the two hole for each of the last seven games. With a 1.001 OPS, four home runs and 13 RBI across his last 10 contests, he figures to stay put for a while. Josh Bell had been the team's regular No. 2 hitter, but he's since moved down to the cleanup spot versus righties. Jazz Chisholm has been sandwiched between De La Cruz and Bell in the three spot versus right-handers, although that could change when Jake Burger (intercostal) returns.

Emmanuel Rivera has essentially become an everyday player since Burger went down, starting eight of nine games. He's been at third base in the five contests against righties and shifted to first base versus left-handers, with Otto Lopez occupying the hot corner those days. Unfortunately, Rivera has not taken advantage of the opportunity. He's hitting just .225/.326/.225 with Miami and is still looking for his first extra-base hit.

New York Mets

– The Mets have been playing some good ball over the last couple weeks but sustained a big blow over the weekend with Francisco Alvarez needing surgery to repair a ligament tear in his left thumb. Tomas Nido is back with the big club to take Alvarez's roster spot. He's gotten one start and Omar Narvaez has received three starts in Alvarez's place. Narvaez could be worth some deep-league consideration if you're scraping the bottom of the barrel, but with catcher as deep as it's been in years you can probably just ignore this situation for fantasy purposes.

Jeff McNeil batted cleanup for the Mets on Opening Day and in each of their first two tilts against right-handed pitching. Manager Carlos Mendoz quickly rethought that decision, though, both because McNeil scuffled out of the gate and Starling Marte has hit well. McNeil has reached base eight times across his last six contests, but it's looking like he's not going to be batting higher than sixth for now even with Alvarez on the shelf.

Philadelphia Phillies

– Like most managers, Rob Thomson likes to split up his right- and left-handed batters as much as he can. For the first couple weeks of the season that means Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh batting sixth and eighth, respectively, with Nick Castellanos sandwiched in between. Since then, though, the two left-handed hitters have been flipped, with Marsh occupying the sixth spot in six of the seven tilts versus righties until he was moved up to cleanup with Bryce Harper on paternity leave. On the whole, Marsh's production has slowed a bit since the move, although he's still slugging .460 during that span. Stott has still yet to get going this season.

– The Phillies parked Johan Rojas on the bench for two straight contests from April 11-12, with Thomson referring to it as a "soft reset" amidst the young outfielder's offensive struggles. Consider Rojas rebooted, as he's gone 10-for-26 at the plate since while stealing five bases. I'm not sure how real the recent offensive improvement with Rojas is, but it should lengthen his leash on the center field job and he'll probably continue to swipe bags even if his on-base percentage is suboptimal.

Washington Nationals

– Manager Dave Martinez appears to have (mostly) realized that Eddie Rosario is not actually a center fielder, starting him just four times there over the last 19 games after putting him in center for each of the first three contests of the season. That, combined with Victor Robles (hamstring) still sidelined, has meant regular playing time for Jacob Young, as Young has started 13 of 17 contests since Robles went down. Eight of those 13 starts have come from the nine spot in the lineup, but Young has also hit leadoff four times (three of them came versus lefties). What we've learned about the speedy Young is that he's going to run when he gets on. He's 6-for-6 in stolen base attempts this season and a perfect 19-for-19 since receiving his first promotion to the majors last August. That covers just 167 plate appearances. He might help in only one category, but Young is rosterable because he's so good at that one skill.

– What a difference a month makes for Luis Garcia. Late in spring training it had seemed like he might not even make the Opening Day roster following some sloppy defense during Grapefruit League play]. Now, Garcia looks to be the Nats' cleanup hitter, having been slotted in there for three of the last four games against righties. He's earned the move up in the order by slashing .317/.348/.476 with one home run and five stolen bases. Garcia looks like a new hitter this year, as his hard-hit rate (48.1 percent) and barrel rate (13.5 percent) have both skyrocketed and he's still making a lot of contact (16.7 percent strikeout rate). Keep in mind, he's still only 23.

Chicago Cubs

– The Cubs sustained a big blow last week when the hot-hitting Seiya Suzuki landed on the injured list with an oblique strain. More recently, Ian Happ missed time with a hamstring issue, although he returned to action Tuesday. The injuries have led to a shakeup at the top of the lineup. Nico Hoerner has been the biggest beneficiary in going from the seven spot up to leadoff for five straight contests. We've also seen Michael Busch elevated from sixth to cleanup.

Garrett Cooper had started six of seven tilts since Suzuki went down, with half of them being against right-handers. Then, on Tuesday the Cubs surprisingly designated him for assignment. The impetus of the move seemed more about wanting to give Matt Mervis a shot than anything Cooper did or didn't do. Mervis had slashed .288/.402/.606 with five home runs at Triple-A Iowa to earn a promotion. He is a bit of a difficult roster fit since he and Busch are both left-handed hitting first basemen, but Mervis could see action in the DH spot since Christopher Morel is essentially playing third base every day now.

Cincinnati Reds

Christian Encarnacion-Strand was bolted down to the No. 3 spot in the Reds' lineup for the first 17 games of the season. He then missed two contests with an illness and after returning has been moved down to the five spot for four straight games. Although he has managed to drive in 14 runs in 20 games this season, Encarnacion-Strand is slashing an ugly .190/.195/.321 with an equally ugly 26:1 K:BB. However, with an average exit velocity in the 76th percentile and barrel rate in the 79th percentile, the 24-year-old is due for some better luck.

– Something to keep an eye on is Elly De La Cruz's position in the lineup. He's batted sixth in all but one game this season, but the last time the Reds faced a right-hander he was moved up to the two hole. I understand the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" aspect of this, but the switch-hitting De La Cruz is slashing an absurd .348/.434/.783 this season against right-handed pitching, so it's difficult to justify hitting him that low when he's hitting from his stronger side of the dish.

Milwaukee Brewers

– There was a two-week stretch where Sal Frelick was bounced around to multiple spots in the Brewers' lineup, but he's back to being their regular leadoff man versus righties, having made six straight starts there in such situations. Unfortunately, Frelick has slashed just .238/.333/.238 in those six contests. Even perched atop the batting order, the 24-year-old is going to need to start running more to earn his fantasy keep, because his batted-ball data is some of the worst in the game with zero barrels and a hard-hit rate in the 10th percentile this season. Frelick sports a sprint speed in the 92nd percentile and has a solid .356 on-base percentage but has attempted just four stolen bases (he's been successful three times). Somehow, the Brew Crew faced just their second lefty of the season Tuesday, and Frelick was on the bench.

Blake Perkins started just one of the first seven games, but he's been in the lineup 13 times across the last 15 contests, including the last 10 in a row. Every one of those starts for the gifted fielder have been in center field. The 27-year-old has also inched his way up in the batting order as a result of his .333/.414/.510 start, peaking at fifth a couple times over the past week. It's fair to wonder whether Perkins might be higher in the pecking order than Frelick once Christian Yelich (back) returns, although Yelich's timetable still seems very much up in the air.

Pittsburgh Pirates

– It's been a rough stretch for Oneil Cruz. He came into action Tuesday slashing just .146/.212/.229 with a 42.3 percent strikeout rate over his last 13 games, and as a result he's been dropped in the batting order. The left-handed-hitting Cruz had already been batting lower in the order versus southpaws, but in the last three contests against right-handers he's hit eighth twice and seventh twice. He's still hitting the ball hard on average (91.6 mph), but his barrel rate has been more than halved from 2022 (15.5 percent to 7.5 percent). Cruz will probably be OK, but he'll need to get that strikeout rate closer to 30 percent than the 38.5 percent mark it's currently at.

– With Cruz demoted from the leadoff spot versus righties, manager Derek Shelton has used Andrew McCutchen (two), Connor Joe (one) and Edward Olivares (one) there. Joe is already the regular leadoff man against lefties and is actually hitting better off righties this season (.895 OPS to .819 OPS), so it would make sense just to make him the everyday leadoff guy until Cruz rights the ship. McCutchen, though, homered out of the leadoff spot Monday to earn a second straight start there.

St. Louis Cardinals

– The Cardinals moved the slumping Paul Goldschmidt down in the batting order, putting him in the five spot twice versus righties while flipping Willson Contreras up to the two hole. It's the first time since Goldy joined St. Louis that he hasn't hit second, third or fourth. Fellow ice-cold bat Nolan Gorman has also been demoted. He mostly hit third for the first two-and-a-half weeks of the season, but he was dropped to the sixth spot for three starts and was all the way down to eighth on Sunday. Goldschmidt hit a game-tying homer and Gorman cranked a walk-off blast Monday, so perhaps it was the jolt they both needed.

Victor Scott's playing time had started to dip with just two starts in a five-game stretch, and over the weekend the Cards sent him to the minors. It's been Mike Siani in center field for each of the four contests since Scott's demotion, and he's patrolled center in seven of the last nine tilts. The 24-year-old is a terrific defender and has reached base six times over the last three tilts out of the nine spot in the lineup. He's almost surely just keeping the seat warm for Tommy Edman (wrist) and Dylan Carlson (shoulder), though, with the latter looking like he's nearing a rehab assignment.

Arizona Diamondbacks

– With Geraldo Perdomo (knee) slated to miss multiple more weeks and Jace Peterson having been released, the Diamondbacks are down to Blaze Alexander and Kevin Newman at shortstop. Alexander leads the club with eight starts at short since Perdomo went down, and with four additional starts at DH over that stretch he's essentially been an everyday player. Only Joc Pederson (1.024) has a higher OPS than Alexander's .945 mark. The rookie is currently dealing with a hamstring issue but is expected to avoid the IL

– Speaking of Pederson, the Diamondbacks have a very specific role for him as the strong-side platoon at DH. He has not played an inning in the outfield and he has not made a start against a left-handed pitcher. Unfortunately for Pederson, Arizona has faced an inordinate number of left-handers so far (13, versus 12 righties). Pederson has not batted lower than fifth this season and has hit third once and fourth once over the past week.

Colorado Rockies

– A breakout fantasy star in 2023, Nolan Jones entered play Tuesday slashing an embarrassing .143/.217/.250 with a 38 percent strikeout rate. The left-handed batter has just a .282 OPS and 45.5 percent strikeout rate against lefty pitchers. After batting lower than third just one time in the first nine games of the season, Jones has hit either fifth or sixth in 12 of 14 starts since then. Jones' hard-hit rate (40.8 percent) and average exit velocity (89.3 mph) are down only slightly, but his barrel rate has gone from 15.7 percent to 4.1 percent.

Sean Bouchard probably should have made the Opening Day roster, but he's up now as a replacement for Kris Bryant (back) and has started five of six contests, with four of those coming against righties for the right-handed batter. He entered play Tuesday having gone 4-for-12 with a couple doubles, but he's still looking for his first RBI and his last two starts have come from the No. 9 spot. Bouchard has been productive during his chances at the big league level and I'm at least willing to hold him on my bench and see where it goes.

Los Angeles Dodgers

– With Jason Heyward's back injury lingering, the Dodgers elected to promote Andy Pages from Triple-A Oklahoma City. They've handed the 23-year-old six straight starts, as he's been in right field three times against right-handers and in center field three times versus lefties. Pages entered action Tuesday with a 9:0 K:BB over his first 20 plate appearances, but he did slug his first home run Sunday and also has a couple doubles.

– The Dodgers basically used James Outman as an everyday player last season, but so far this season he's been on the bench eight of the nine times they've faced a left-hander. First it was Enrique Hernandez getting those starts in center against lefties, but more recently it's been the aforementioned Pages. Outman has hit only .243/.349/.293 in his career versus lefties, so you can't blame the Dodgers for starting to platoon him, particularly while Pages is up. Outman has entered as a pinch-hitter in five of those games he didn't start, but he's also been removed for a pinch-hitter in four contests.

San Diego Padres

Graham Pauley is back after a brief stint in the minors and has made two starts (one at third base, one at DH) in four games. He does not appear to be a threat to Tyler Wade at third base against right-handers, though. Wade has started 12 of the last 13 at the hot corner versus righties in spite of an ugly .217/.321/.239 batting line. Manny Machado is currently on paternity leave and there's no word yet on when he might be ready to play third base.

Ha-Seong Kim entered play Tuesday sporting a .227/.370/.477 batting line in 13 tilts since being moved from the five spot to the six spot (though he has batted fifth three times during that span on days Jake Cronenworth and Machado weren't in the lineup). Manager Mike Shildt hasn't changed up his lineups much at all this season, but you'd have to wonder if he might be considering giving Kim a shot at leadoff, where he spent most of his time last season. Xander Bogaerts is slashing just .196/.271/.278 out of the leadoff spot for the Padres.

San Francisco Giants

– Manager Bob Melvin said during spring training that he planned to bat the left-handed hitting Jung Hoo Lee in the leadoff spot against both right- and left-handed pitching. The skipper stuck to it for the first 12 games of the season, but the Giants faced only one lefty over that span. In the five times they've gone up against southpaws since then, it's been Austin Slater atop the batting order. Lee hasn't gone far, though, dropping down to the three spot three times while also receiving two days off. The 25-year-old started slowly but is hitting .340/.397/.453 over his last 13 contests.

– Melvin hasn't seemed at all interested in giving anyone else reps at shortstop, sticking with Nick Ahmed for 23 of 25 games after the 34-year-old won the job as a non-roster invitee in spring training. He's been perfectly adequate offensively in slashing .296/.333/.366, and Ahmed leads all shortstops in Outs Above Average. Marco Luciano, who entered spring training as the odds-on favorite for the shortstop job, is hitting .296/.414/.366 at Triple-A Sacramento but is homerless.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan Boyer
Ryan has been writing about fantasy baseball since 2005 for Fanball, Rotoworld, Baseball Prospectus and RotoWire.
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